Saturday, March 08, 2008

How Obama Can Win and Win Strong

I am aware of the delegate math.

I know that, unless the Clinton team runs roughshod with regard to superdelegates, the numbers are unassailable.

However, for Obama to not only win, but to win strong, and thus to be in the best position for the general,
he must step outside of the box created when Clinton tactics were applied to his own admirable stance.

By declaring himself the candidate of the new politics, putting the politics of Rove et al. aside for a politics of honesty, straight-forward decency, and strength, he has putatively left the field open for Clinton et al. to lob innuendo after innuendo. If he responds, he is in violation of his commitment to the new; if he continues with his current path of non-response, he will be taken down by a series of attacks, that however false or fantastic, will eventually raises doubts in the mind of the electorate as to the validity of his new politics, and will, in the great viscera of the electorate, so responsive and so easily changed, appear "weak."

If he attacks, it is said, he betrays himself; if he continues on the same path, he is whittled down by rumor and insinuation.

Clinton's current strength is her ability to attack, however true the nature and content of the attacks. Obama must turn this very behavior into its own negative. To do so, Obama must relentlessly name what she is doing and anchor it--calling for an "end to the era of 'kitchen sink' politics, i.e.:

"It's about time that we left the era of "kitchen sink" politics, of distortion and insinuation, behind us. We have all seen it before this--a period where it was often difficult to tell falsehood, rumor, and misinformation from truth. It was this type of politics that contributed to a war in which we have lost the best of our national treasure, our nation's men and women. It is this type of politics that our opponents not so long ago decried. And it is this type of politics that, more than anything else, signals weakness--the inability to base one's statements and actions on the firm ground of truth, on our collective and honest dedication to the construction of a new and positive future--and instead, on a retreat into the politics of personal destruction.

It's time to take out the dirty dishes; It's time to empty the kitchen sink. After an era where it was often difficult to distinguish fantasy from truth, it's time to put that era behind us, to base our future efforts on a strong and honest desire to build a new and better future."

What Obama can create is his own "There you go again" moment--one that will both define Clinton (after all, someone has to do it), and at the same time place the Clinton camp in their very own box, of their own making: A box where any attack will be immediately associated in the voter's mind, and will be accompanied by a roll of the voter's eyes, as another example of Clinton's "kitchen sink" politics; of the chaotic, inconsistent, contradictory and frantic willingness to say or do anything to be elected, be it the changing of one's personality, tone, degree of honesty--or one's degree of tolerance or gusto for the politics of personal destruction.

Without a single attack, this demonstrates the nature of the Clinton camp: in a moment of crisis, and in danger of loss, rather than respond with strength, principle and authority, they throw the "kitchen sink" at the issue, abandoning principles and frantically strewing innuendo as they do so.

With powerful moral force, it names exactly what the Clinton camp is doing, and anchors it both to the politics of the past Administration, and to the very political tactics that Clinton herself has denounced and disavowed. In addition, it provides direct evidence--thus far, the only direct evidence--of how a Clinton Administration would likely govern in times of chaos, crisis, and other "3 a.m. moments" (thus disempowering her already shaky claims to superior foreign policy judgment): With a "kitchen sink" approach of tumultuous, changing, disorganized and contradictory attack, rather than with consistent purpose and moral authority.

Obama must persistently name what the Clinton camp is doing rather than complain--and he must then link it to the very essence of an old politics that has been lived through by all of us, and denigrated by most over the past 8 years.

Thus named, and thus defined, Obama can then invite Clinton up to the higher ground--to a debate based on policy and principle--or she can choose to stay in the box that she and her camp have created.


-Dr. Alan J. Lipman

22 comments:

Henry said...

Setting Obama's policies aside, just him winning would shift the paradigm of politics. All of the other conventional politicians who only use what has worked in the past would have to rethink the way they campaign. The standard would become Obama's politics of hope with a focus on bringing people together to solve problems.

Here are my thoughts on transforming the image of the Democratic Party:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/blog/henrylopez

Here are some lessons progressives can learn from conservatives:
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/030408O.shtml
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/030708O.shtml

William said...

Superb and simple blend of substance with political smarts. While I am sure the BO campaign will come upon this piece, I encourage bloggers and commenters to flood relevant opinion makers with thoughtful commentary.

The Legend

Anonymous said...

I sent a brief email to Senator Obama's campaign yesterday along the same lines - his best strategy against Hillary Clinton is to expose and 'attack' her modus operandi - an MO which is precisely what is wrong with Washington politics and that we need to change. Of course, you've done a much better job in clarifying what Obama needs to do. Creating a 'There you go again' moment that boxes in all the kitchen sink crap. Love it!

Douglas said...

Thanks for the great article. I totally agree that the Clintons' tactics must be named and defined in order to be overcome. Please tell me that you are in contact with Barack Obama.

Anonymous said...

He needs to use reflective rebuttals whenever she attacks. Examples:

“Senator Clinton says she’s ‘the only one with a real plan for managing the economy’ (Washington Post, Feb 20). She must think Americans have awfully short memories. This claim comes from the candidate who – in January, at the very beginning of primary season – had already mismanaged her finances to the point that she had to loan five million dollars to her own campaign. Does it make sense to think she can manage our nation’s budget deficit?”

“Senator Clinton says she’s ‘the only one with a real plan [. . .] for reining in the special interests’ (Washington Post, Feb 20). She must think Americans have awfully short memories. Senator Clinton accepts money from lobbyists and PACs. Does it make sense to think she’ll suddenly change her ways and start standing up to special interests if she’s elected president? If we want to rein in the special interests, shouldn’t we vote for the candidate who isn’t being paid by them?”

“In her ‘3 a.m.’ advertisement, Senator Clinton tells us that we should vote for ‘someone who already knows the world’s leaders.” She must think Americans have awfully short memories. She's the candidate who couldn’t properly name the new president of Russia. When told Dmitri Medvedev’s name, she laughed and said: ‘Whatever.’ If she can’t remember the name of the newly-elected president of Russia, how can she pretend that she knows the world’s leaders? And in January she joked that President Putin ‘doesn’t have a soul’ (New York Times, Feb 15). Are such statements appropriate for a future commander-in-chief who will need to work with foreign heads of state?”

“Hillary Clinton has spent a lot of time reminding us of her thirty-five years of experience. She must think Americans have an awfully short memory. She began her first elected post in 2001 and has served as a senator for seven years. Barack Obama began his first elected post in 1997 and has served as a senator for eleven years, at BOTH the state AND federal level. True, Senator Clinton was first lady for many years, but should being married to a politician count as political experience? Would you let your surgeon’s spouse perform an operation on you?”

----------------

You get the point. Each time she launches one of her groundless attacks, the Obama campaign shows that the criticism really applies to Clinton more than Obama. And each time, they use the same catchphrase, such as the one I've chosen here ("She must think Americans have an awfully short memory"). Because these remarks are framed as rebuttals to Clinton's accusations, they don't play as unprovoked attacks, allowing the Obama campaign to maintain its well-deserved reputation for not going negative.

elizab said...

You are SOOO right on with these comments! I have emailed the obama site with similar suggestions - but you all are saying it so well. He just has to get her in one of those 'there you go again' modes...even if it does sound like Reagan's response. So what, it worked then.

Ramón Morales said...

I consider your post an outstanding piece perhaps the very best I've read so far. It is superior to even Andrew Sullivan's suggestions. I am posting it among the Obama Groups I belong to. In this manner we can spread your thoughts and perhaps gain some traction with the campaign. Great work!!!

Sam said...

I'd like to suggest a somewhat different take on this. In my view, the problem isn't Hillary's tearing down of Obama per se. The problem is that she's winning every news cycle. Even if she's winning it ugly, she's still up there. And underlying this is a fundamental fact: When a candidate gives his or her stump speech for the umpteenth time *it isn't news*. It doesn't give the networks anything to report.

The challenge is to make news.

Hillary can make news by attacking Obama. But Obama can't make news by rebutting those attacks, because then he's just playing catch-up (i.e. the original attack will still be the headline). And he can't go negative himself because it's out of character.

So, how does one make news *positively*? Winning caucuses and primaries is one way, and announcing record-breaking fund-raising is another. What else? I'd like to see Obama rewrite his stump speech and perhaps choose a different slogan. But what I'd really like to see is a major policy initiative. It could be broad-based (a "Great Society" kind of thing) or something narrower (energy independence, education, war on terror). I know he already has positions on everything, but this would involve elaborating or rewording them, or, at the least, giving them a higher profile.

As long as it's dramatic enough to be worth reporting. The point is to make news in a way that doesn't violate Obama's basic commitment to run a positive campaign.

Kitty said...

Excellent strategy. I think this definitely is a very good way for Sen. Obama to maintain his integrity while exposing the Clinton's as "politics of old". However, I truly believe that the rhetoric will be toned down by the Clintons because they have gotten the results they wanted (doubting Obama's toughness) and now they will try to mask as the unifers of the party. How should Obama play this game if it does continue down this path?

Anonymous said...

This excellent article has expressed very well many of my own thoughts in the past week. As an Independent I thought, until recently, that I could be happy with either candidate (Clinton or Obama)as the nominee. I've become thoroughly disgusted, however, with Senator Clinton's campaign tactics. I believe she's showing her true colors, and demonstrating to us all what kind of president she would be. The fear-mongering "3:00 a.m." ad, shows that she's no better than President Bush and his administration. She'll lie, distort, go to any lengths, no matter how dirty, to gain or retain power. That kind of character is the last thing this country needs. All her vaunted "experience" (such as it is) does her, and us, no good, because she clearly doesn't have the character, wisdom or judgment to benefit from it. The liklihood that she will be the nominee, unless the Obama campaign can offer the kind of countering strategy that you and other respondents suggest, makes me want to weep. It feels as though a light will be extinguished and we'll be plunged into the same old darkness. God help us.

Anonymous said...

if you have a way to get it to Obama, you should do so. This is a strategic and well-articulated way to rise above.

Tosca said...

Excellent point. That's not only excellent psychology but effective immunization against not only the 'Clinton Machine' but also against any 'swiftboating' that may come from the Republicans.

It's a 'double wammy', so to speak.

I hope you find receptive ears in the Obama camp.

Anonymous said...

Dead on. Someone needs to get this into the hands of the Obama campaign...

George said...

While I hope the Obama campaign reads this, I would absolutely LOVE it if Obama, during a national debate, retorted with Clinton's husbands great words. Bill Clinton campaign declared an end to the "politics of fear" claiming instead the Politics of Hope.
It would be a great stinger in the side of Clinton. Probably one of the greatest moments in U.S. political history.

I found the idea here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LexFBn3kbZw&feature=related

Baldwin Park Democrat said...

Great approach!

I sent an email with the link to the Obama campaign - just not sure who will read it and what they'll do with it.

Anonymous said...

Exceptionally well put and an excellent analysis of what the Obama campaign needs to do.

But I'm not sure that you aren't understating the seriousness of the situation. The Clinton campaign has doubtless also figured out the math: it is becoming apparent that her kitchen sink campaign is not about winning more pledged delegates, but about winning with superdelegates. If she can cast sufficient doubt on Senator Obama's qualifications or electability, she hopes to sway a sufficient number of superdelegates to steal the nomination, regardless of Obama's lead in pledged delegates.

Unfortunately, the Obama campaign seems to have decided that the way to avoid this dilemma is to continue to stay "above the fray." The experience of Michael Dukakis and John Kerry (who was 20 points ahead of Bush when the swiftboating started) suggests this is a pretty risky strategy. Uncontested, negative campaigning sticks, and some of her unfounded charges ("the media hates Hillary") have already changed the tenor of the campaign.

I am worried that what you suggest is not simply a way for Obama to win big, but perhaps the only sure way he can win.

I would urge you to do whatever you can to share this perspective with anyone in the Obama campaign who will listen.

OneFatGuy said...

Great article.. Until I read this I have to admit that I was posting many comments on barackobama.com urging Barack to also go on the attack, fearing that in the minds of many voters (especially men), he would appear weak for failing to respond forcefully enough, in kind if you will, to the vicious and most unsubstantiated attacks of the Clinton campaign. However reading this article has me rethinking that idea.. I will post links to this article all over the barackobama.com site in the hopes that some people there take note of it and get to the relevant people. I'm sure in fact that Barack and his advisors already know this... But no article I've read puts it as clearly and succinctly as this one does, so it's definately worth pushing to them. Great article!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for such a cogent argument. I applaud your taking the time to construct this and put it out there. What with Clinton’s campaign darkening Barack’s skin color in ads; using his middle name to fear monger; mocking his cultural heritage; destroying Peter Paul/Stan Lee Media debacle (YOUTUBE); and now finally claiming PA to be one of her homes…how many is it now? IL, DC, NY, PA…I’m losing count – it’s difficult for the average voter to sort out an appropriate response, without the inclination to sink to the same depths. Having the time, the technology and the inclination to think them through some of these issues is precisely what’s needed for our national conversation.

The most potent antidote to such brainwashing is not only the knowledge of how media is manipulated, but what should an appropriate response be to such tactics. What Barack’s campaign does for me is invite me out of the closet of “alienation”. It doesn’t dismiss my concerns about my country, its politics, its ethics, its federal spending, its lack of economic parity and its racial legacy nor hold them any less valuable because I’m not a native of OH or TX.

Anonymous said...

Yeah!!!!!!

Did you all see this? Barack DID name "it," anchor it, and tie it to the old politics!

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/03/08/BB.Obama.No.vp.ktvq?iref=videosearch

Way to go, Barack!!

Trane1 said...

Encouraging responses, but in the spirit of the OB campaign (veering away from the "top down" paradigm) we should take the time to advance the idea through our local news outlets, media, columnists, etc. As MSMedia outlets see the way the issue resonates with folks across the US they may think beyond the prevailing herd instinct (waiting to see what the official campaign says next)and write about similiar HC stretches. For another example see the 3/9 posting by mainiac on Daily Kos.

Advance comrades!

The Legend

dc_speaks said...

bravo!

It's nice to see other bloggers doing the same thing all over the country.

I applaud the well thought out post and the delivery.

See ya Jan '09 to present Pres. Barack Obama.

Anonymous said...

I totally agree Dr. Lipman. To take this one step further, it's also important to understand the paradigm of dirty fighting tactics:

http://www.theyoungturks.com/story/2008/3/8/103948/4418/Diary/Fighting-Effectively-Against-Dirty-Rovian-Tactics